Trump Aims for Black and Latino Votes, But Polls Indicate Low Approval
As Donald Trump prepares to accept the Republican nomination for a third time, he aims to broaden his coalition, particularly targeting nonwhite voters who largely opposed him in the 2020 election. Despite his efforts, an analysis by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals that approximately 70% of Black Americans hold a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Trump, as do around 50% of Hispanic Americans. Although both groups view Trump slightly more favorably than when he left office in 2021, their overall opinion remains predominantly negative.
Gaining support from Black and Hispanic Americans would be advantageous for Trump, who secured 35% of Hispanic voters and 8% of Black voters in 2020 according to AP VoteCast. Trump hopes to leverage dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden, whose favorability among Black and Hispanic Americans has declined since 2021. However, it is uncertain whether Biden’s diminished support among these groups is translating into increased support for Trump.
Trump’s popularity appears to be stable, with little impact from his felony conviction in May for falsifying business documents. Gallup polls during his presidency showed an average approval rating of 41%, never exceeding 50%. Trump claims substantial support from Hispanic communities, but the AP analysis indicates that about half of Hispanic adults view him unfavorably. Around 40% of Hispanic adults in recent polls see Trump positively, up from 30% in January 2021.
Contrary to campaign advisers’ claims, Trump’s appeal among Hispanic men and younger Hispanic adults due to his business focus is not supported by the poll analysis. Current views of Trump are similar among Hispanic men and women, older and younger adults, and those with varying education levels. Biden also faces challenges among Hispanic adults, with about half viewing him unfavorably and 40% favorably, a decline from early 2021 when 60% had a positive view.
Black Americans continue to hold predominantly negative views of Trump, with 70% viewing him unfavorably, though this is a 20 percentage point decrease since early 2021. The Trump campaign suggests Black men may be more receptive to his message, but the poll shows similar views among Black men and women. Younger Black adults, those under 45, are somewhat more open to Trump, with one-third viewing him positively, compared to about 10% of those 45 or older. Despite this, the majority of younger Black adults still view him unfavorably.
Biden retains more support among Black Americans, with about 60% viewing him positively, though this is down from 80% when he took office.